Statistical Swish: Can Mathematics Help You With Your March Madness Bracket?

Perfect brackets are nearly impossible, but it helps to have statistics on your side

1 in 263, that is the probability, at random, of picking a perfect NCAA March Madness bracket. Roughly 1 in 9.2 quintillion. You have better odds of winning the lottery twice in a row than divining a perfect bracket.

However, with a little knowledge of basketball and an understanding of some basic mathematics principles, your odds at perfection greatly increase to roughly 1 in 120 billion. Although this might seem insurmountable, picking the right upsets, studying the matchups from past years and paying attention to a few important stats could play a pivotal role in helping to beat these odds.

Picking the Perfect Upset

When filling out your bracket, don’t waste time laboring over who will win in a No. 1 seed versus No. 16 seed matchup. For instance, in the men’s basketball tournament, a No. 16 seed has only ever beaten a top-seeded team twice, so choosing the higher seed in this scenario is best. However, mixing in a few upsets—especially among the closer matchups—is an important strategy on your road to perfection. Professor Jason Molitierno, chair of the mathematics department at Sacred Heart University, is an avid bracketology fan. He spoke about the importance of picking the right upsets.

“I generally like to mix in a few 5 vs. 12 and 6 vs. 11 upsets,” he said. “Those two matchups tend to have a high upset rate and could be the key to your bracket remaining a little more intact.”

Pay Attention to a Few Statistical Categories

Don’t just go for the higher seed or pick teams at random. There is an advantage, Molitierno said, when you pay attention to some of the advanced stats that are tracked in basketball today.

“I often like to look at a few statistical categories when filling out my bracket. Looking at metrics like points per game, points allowed per game and point differential is key, especially in the games that are tossups,” he said.

Point differential is calculated by subtracting a team’s points allowed from their points scored. While you can look at stats like points per game, or points allowed per game, point differential is an incredibly important stat to factor in come March. “It is one of the few measurements that account for how a team plays on both sides of the basketball court, Molitierno said. For example, throughout men’s college basketball history, teams that have had the greatest success in the tournament have an average +8-point differential, which means that a team outscores their opponent by an average of 8 points per game.

Nobody is Perfect

For the estimated 60 to 100 million people who fill out brackets every year, picking a perfect bracket is just about impossible, and, unfortunately, no method is foolproof. No matter your knowledge of advanced statistics or college basketball, the longest a bracket remained intact was 49 games in 2019.

“The longest I’ve had a bracket remain perfect is a couple hours,” Molitierno said. “While focusing on stats has helped me pick a few teams in the Final Four or National Championship, there’s no amount of knowledge that can beat the bracket."

Both the men’s and women’s final brackets were released Sunday, March 16. You can visit the NCAA’s March Madness webpage for information about brackets.

While the Pios won’t be in the big dance this year, the men’s and women’s basketball teams will be back on the court next season. Come watch them play next season in the newly renovated William Pitt Athletic & Convocation Center!

Interested in studying mathematics at SHU?

The Sacred Heart University mathematics department provides students with a strong foundation to not only grasp the fundamentals of statistical probabilities but also develop a strong quantitative literacy in many other areas.

Programs of study include a Bachelor of Science in mathematics (traditional track, actuarial science track or data science track), a math minor and a minor in actuarial science.

Math majors will graduate with the knowledge necessary to achieve success in graduate studies, a teaching career or a variety of statistical and/or business careers.

You can learn more about SHU’s mathematics program by visiting SHU’s undergraduate admissions webpage or calling 203-371-7880.