Latest SHU Poll Shows Biden is Favorite Candidate Among Democrats
Trump trailing Democratic Presidential candidates in Connecticut, voters split on impeachment
A new phone and digital poll conducted by Sacred Heart University’s Institute for Public Policy, completed in partnership with the Hartford Courant between December 16, 2019, and January 2, 2020, involved 1,000 Connecticut residents and asked timely questions pertaining to the leading Democratic presidential candidates, how residents would likely vote if the election were being held immediately, how respondents feel about President Trump’s role in the Ukraine controversy and the likelihood of his being impeached.
On the Presidential race
In December 2019, when registered Democratic respondents were given the names of the current frontrunners of the Democratic Party, the highest rate of respondents (33 percent) reported they would vote for Joe Biden, followed by Bernie Sanders (19.3 percent), Elizabeth Warren (17.8 percent) and Pete Buttigieg (11.2 percent). When all respondents were asked who they would vote for if the presidential race in 2020 was between each of those candidates and Donald Trump, the highest rate of respondents chose Bernie Sanders (52.3 percent) over Donald Trump (35.2 percent), followed by Joe Biden (51.7 percent over 32.3 percent for Donald Trump), Elizabeth Warren (48.8 percent over 35.7 percent for Donald Trump) and Pete Buttigieg (46.9 percent over 33.4 percent for Donald Trump).
Of registered Republicans surveyed, 19.2 percent reported if the Presidential race was between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, they would vote for Joe Biden. In that same scenario, 41.6 percent of Republican respondents ages 45-64 reported if the Presidential race was between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, they would vote for Donald Trump, compared to 29.2 percent of Republican respondents ages 18-34 who chose Trump.
Regarding impeachment
The strong majority of December 2019 respondents (85.8 percent) reported being very (61.3 percent) or somewhat (24.5 percent) aware of the recent impeachment hearings and controversy. Further, while slightly more than two-thirds of respondents (67.5 percent) do not think the U.S. senate will vote in favor of impeachment and removal of President Trump from office, 49.8 percent think there is enough evidence to support impeachment and removal.
When asked if the Senate will likely vote in favor of impeachment and remove President Trump from office, 80 percent of Republican residents surveyed (66.6 percent of unaffiliated residents and 65.5 percent of Democratic residents) did not think the Senate will vote in favor of impeachment and removal of President Trump from office. At the same time, 80.5 percent of Democratic residents surveyed think there is enough evidence to support impeachment and removal of President Trump from office, compared to only 22 percent of Republican residents surveyed.
“The results of this new survey demonstrate the great political divides continuing to polarize our nation,” said Lesley DeNardis, executive director of the Institute for Public Policy and director of Sacred Heart University’s master of public administration (MPA) program. “Respondents certainly are aware of the recent impeachment proceedings, but split on partisan lines about President Trump’s culpability. However, the majority of respondents from both parties and those unaffiliated with a party believe the Senate—which is controlled by the Republicans—is unlikely to impeach the President, even though almost half of these same respondents believe there is enough evidence to support impeachment. These numbers, if unchanged in the coming months, may play a vital role in helping to determine election results this November, regardless of the Senate’s actions.”
GreatBlue Research conducted the Connecticut-specific scientific telephone survey on behalf of the SHU Institute for Public Policy, interviewing 1,000 residents. Statistically, this sampling represents a margin for error of +/-3.02 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The poll was conducted in partnership with the Hartford Courant.
Sacred Heart’s Institute for Public Policy, which was established in 2017 in the College of Arts and Sciences, is aligned with the University’s master of public administration program. In addition to hosting state-wide polls, the institute conducts public policy research, hosts public forums and workshops and serves as a public-policy learning incubator for students.