Visiting Math Professor Discusses Sports Analytics
Rick Cleary says math can help determine the fairness of sports ranking methods
Sacred Heart University brought in a mathematics and business analytics professor from Babson College, Rick Cleary, for a talk on “Playing Fair with Math and Stats Analytics: Applications to Sports Rules and Rankings.”
During Cleary’s presentation, he explained how math and statistics can be used to explore the concept of fairness in sports.
Jason Molitierno, SHU’s math department chair, introduced Cleary, noting that the professor is “no stranger to sports, having run 32 Boston Marathons.”
Math and sports go together, Cleary said as he began his presentation. “Math helps us play fair in politics and dividing resources, but especially in sports with regard to ranking and judging,” he said. “Fairness is difficult to achieve, particularly when more than two parties are involved. No voting method can be perfectly fair. Math can help us understand the strengths and weaknesses of various alternatives.”
To illustrate his point, Cleary noted that NFL playoffs are determined by division winners and wild cards. In constricting the number of playoff games, principles can be conflicting—best records vs. best in group. Committees often come into play, as in NCAA basketball, to decide which teams go to a tournament. Often, interleague play and records are considered in the decision-making process.
Cleary related that, applying math, astrophysicist Wes Colley created a linear algebraic method called the Colley Matrix, wherein each team starts the season with a ranking of .500. Each win results in an increase in the team’s ranking, and as the season goes on, wins against highly ranked teams improve rankings more than wins against poor teams. Interleague games become very influential. Colley and other analysts argue that his system is more objective than a committee decision. Texas A&M’s men’s basketball program would agree. They were upset when they didn’t make this year’s NCAA tournament based on a committee decision, but they would have been included based on the Colley Matrix. Cleary said that critics of Colley’s method note that it doesn’t consider margin of victory, which some argue should be a key criterion.
Overtime in the NFL presents another dilemma because a coin flip plays a big role―deciding possession. In recent playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Buffalo Bills in overtime after winning the coin toss. Buffalo never got the ball. Perhaps the fairest way to decide overtime possession is by having the teams bid on anticipated yardage, Cleary proposed.
“Math has a role in helping create structures that encourage fairness and vigilance in enforcing rules,” Cleary said. “But fairness is hard, and these rules and enforcements will never be perfect.” He suggested to students that if anyone tells them there is only one reasonable way to do something, “You can tell them they are wrong.”