SHU Poll: Lamont Expands Lead Over Fazio
Final survey finds governor ahead by 22 points among registered voters, with increased support among independents and an advantage on key issues
Key Highlights
- The final Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider Poll finds Gov. Ned Lamont leading Republican Ryan Fazio 53.4% to 31.1% among Connecticut registered voters ahead of the November 2026 gubernatorial election
- Lamont's lead widened to 22.3 percentage points in October, compared with 14.3 points in September and approximately 20 points in July
- Among likely voters, 59.3% support Lamont and 32.7% support Fazio. Including voters leaning toward either candidate, support rises to 61.5% for Lamont and 34.3% for Fazio
Gov. Ned Lamont has expanded his lead over Republican challenger Ryan Fazio in Connecticut's gubernatorial race, according to the third and final Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider Poll. The findings show a shift in voter preferences since September, when the race narrowed, even as concerns about affordability and the state's direction persist.
The survey, conducted by SHU partner GreatBlue Research, finds Lamont leading Fazio 53.4% to 31.1% among registered voters, a 22.3-percentage-point advantage. That marks a widening of the race since September, when Lamont led by 14.3 points, and exceeds his 20.2-point lead in July. Lamont’s support increased by 5.2 percentage points since September, while Fazio’s declined by 2.8 points.
Lamont’s advantage is even greater among likely voters, with 59.3% supporting the incumbent compared with 32.7% for Fazio. When likely voters who lean toward either candidate are included, Lamont's support rises to 61.5%, compared with 34.3% for Fazio, with 4.2% remaining undecided.
One of the most notable changes involves independent voters. In September, independents were closely divided, with 40.9% supporting Lamont and 37% backing Fazio. In October, Lamont's support among independents increased to 49.7%, while Fazio's declined to 28.6%. More than one in five independents (21.1%) remain undecided.
The poll also found Lamont receiving support from 88% of Democrats, compared with 76.8% of Republicans supporting Fazio.
“Voters in Connecticut clearly recognize that myriad policy challenges await the state’s next governor,” said Gary Rose, SHU professor of political science & global affairs, scholar in residence. “Although State Sen. Fazio has attempted to make 2026 a change election by highlighting Governor Lamont's shortcomings, the most recent poll continues to show that voters in no uncertain terms still perceive the governor as having the much-needed experience to guide Connecticut during what promises to be years of economic uncertainty."
Voters Want Change Despite Lamont's Growing Lead
Although Lamont’s lead has grown, the survey finds that voters remain concerned about Connecticut’s direction and the economy.
More than one-third (35.3%) believe Connecticut is on the wrong track, compared with 27.2% who say the state is headed in the right direction. Nearly half (47.6%) believe Connecticut’s economy has worsened over the past year, while just 18.2% say it has improved.
Voters also continue to express a desire for change, although that sentiment has moderated since September. More than four in 10 (41.5%) favor making some changes while keeping many current policies, while 37.4% want significant changes or a completely different direction. In September, 41.6% favored significant changes or a completely different direction. Altogether, nearly eight in 10 voters continue to favor at least some change in the direction of state government.
Lamont’s job approval has also rebounded since September, increasing from 45.5% to 49.6%, with 32.5% disapproving. Confidence in state government’s ability to address the issues that matter most to voters improved from 43.6% in September to 47.8% in October.
Lamont Leads Fazio on Voter Trust Across All 11 Issues
For the first time in the three-part polling series, respondents were asked which candidate they trust more to handle 11 issues facing Connecticut.
Lamont received higher levels of trust than Fazio on all 11 issues, with his largest advantages on education and public schools (50.3% to 23.2%), health care costs and access (49.6% to 24.2%), and housing affordability (45.8% to 24.4%).
The gap was narrower on issues involving costs. On electricity and energy costs, 41.3% trusted Lamont compared with 33.1% who trusted Fazio. On taxes and state government spending, Lamont led 42.6% to 31.2%, while on lowering the cost of living, he led 42.3% to 30.6%.
The survey also found that voters were more likely to believe Lamont understands the challenges facing people like them, 45.4% to 31.2%. However, perceptions were more closely divided on which candidate would bring meaningful change to state government, with 41.3% selecting Lamont, and 35.5% selecting Fazio. Among independents, that dynamic reverses: Fazio leads Lamont 36.4% to 27.8% as the candidate more likely to bring meaningful change, even as independents favor Lamont by more than 20 points in the overall race.
The poll also measured candidate favorability. Lamont received a 58.8% favorable rating compared with 35.8% unfavorable, while Fazio received nearly equal favorable (38.7%) and unfavorable (38.9%) ratings. More than one in five voters (22.4%) said they were not familiar enough with Fazio to offer an opinion.
Affordability Remains Top Issue Across All Three Polls
While the race has shifted throughout the polling series, one concern has not only remained consistent, but grown more prominent: affordability.
One-third of registered voters (33.9%) now identify cost of living and inflation as the most important issue in deciding their vote for governor, up from 31.4% in September and 29.4% in July. The issue ranks first among Democrats (35.5%), Republicans (26.2%), and independents (38.7%).
The ability to lower the cost of living for Connecticut families also remains the most important quality voters seek in a candidate, selected by 29.7% of respondents, from 29.3% in September and up from 26.9% in July.
Financial pressures continue to affect households. Nearly 45% of voters say their personal finances are worse than they were a year ago, up from 38.3% in July, while six in 10 (60.2%) report difficulty maintaining their current standard of living. At the same time, 68.5% continue to rate their overall quality of life in Connecticut as good or very good, underscoring the tension between voters’ views of life in the state and the financial pressures many households are experiencing.
Despite those economic concerns, voters consistently give Lamont an advantage over Fazio on the issues they see as most important. The findings suggest that although affordability has increasingly defined the gubernatorial campaign, voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions has not translated into greater support for the challenger heading into the final weeks of the race.
About the Poll
The Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider Poll was conducted by GreatBlue Research from October 6-12, 2026. The digital survey included 1,000 registered Connecticut voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The sample was weighted by age, gender, education, and political affiliation to reflect Connecticut's registered voter population.
This survey concludes a three-part Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider gubernatorial polling series conducted in July, September, and October, tracking voter preferences, attitudes toward state government and the issues shaping Connecticut's 2026 gubernatorial election.
Want to hear more from SHU? Subscribe to our Pioneer Times newsletter to get the latest updates delivered right to your inbox.